Windmill Giants
7 years ago
Monday, July 2, 2012
unintended consequences
people have probably heard me mention those two words incessantly for the past year and a half.
it dawned on me that life is similar to the heisenberg uncertainty principle or the observer effect.
thus, when you interfere with anything, there are bound to be unintended consequences. unfortunately, most of us are far too short-sighted to map out a probability tree with the 1,000,000 potential outcomes, and the subsequent secondary cascade of 1,000,000,000,000 potential outcomes, the tertiary cascade of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible outcomes, and so on.
so unless you're about to prevent a train wreck or some outcome that doesn't have potentially adverse secondary, tertiary, etc consequences, sit down and hold tight.
it dawned on me that life is similar to the heisenberg uncertainty principle or the observer effect.
thus, when you interfere with anything, there are bound to be unintended consequences. unfortunately, most of us are far too short-sighted to map out a probability tree with the 1,000,000 potential outcomes, and the subsequent secondary cascade of 1,000,000,000,000 potential outcomes, the tertiary cascade of 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible outcomes, and so on.
so unless you're about to prevent a train wreck or some outcome that doesn't have potentially adverse secondary, tertiary, etc consequences, sit down and hold tight.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
coin toss
[content rated E for evolutionists. not recommended for creationists.]
what are the chances that if the earth were to start over 100 times, that the land masses would be the same. that the same wars would occur. that genghis khan would have existed. that japan and germany would have gone bat sh*t crazy. that insane dictators would coexist on this planet. that we would go into space. that the same languages would be formed. that britain would colonize the world. that we would develop the atom bomb. that english would be dominant. that people would look the same. that currencies would be formed. that law would be created. that religion would exist. that corporations would form. that the same viruses would kill us. that steve jobs would be born and create apple. that we would have technology.
what are the chances of these convergences?
i welcome my nerdier folks to run some bayesian and mcmc modeling, but really, isn't the outcome fairly improbable? and by improbable, i mean infinitesimally minutely impossibly possible.
what are the chances that if the earth were to start over 100 times, that the land masses would be the same. that the same wars would occur. that genghis khan would have existed. that japan and germany would have gone bat sh*t crazy. that insane dictators would coexist on this planet. that we would go into space. that the same languages would be formed. that britain would colonize the world. that we would develop the atom bomb. that english would be dominant. that people would look the same. that currencies would be formed. that law would be created. that religion would exist. that corporations would form. that the same viruses would kill us. that steve jobs would be born and create apple. that we would have technology.
what are the chances of these convergences?
i welcome my nerdier folks to run some bayesian and mcmc modeling, but really, isn't the outcome fairly improbable? and by improbable, i mean infinitesimally minutely impossibly possible.
game over
life is like a board game. no matter how many pieces you collect, no matter how much property you acquire, countries you invade, opponents you bankrupt, money you collect, at the end of the game, it's all moot.
your money and other game pieces are no good.
everything goes back in the box, only to gather dust.
your money and other game pieces are no good.
everything goes back in the box, only to gather dust.
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